- SWFX market sentiment is 71% bearish
- 53% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL
- 74% of pending commands are set to sell the Euro
- Upcoming events: Empire State Manufacturing Index
The European single currency was almost unchanged against the US Dollar on the trade balance report on Monday. The EUR/USD currency pair sustained the position near the 1.2270 level.
The trade surplus in the Euro area countries rose to the highest level in the last eight months, as an increase in exports outpaced higher exports, despite strengthnening of the Euro, official estimates revealed. The statistics office Eurostat showed that the Euro zone's goods trade surplus grew to seasonally unadjusted €26.3B in November, compared with Octover's €18.9B and €23.6B recorded in the same month a year earlier. In adjusted terms, the EZ trade surplus reached €22.5B in the reported month.
Uneventful day
The only noteworthy fundamental event in this session comes from the US. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is to publish its Empire State Manufacturing Index at 1330GMT.
EUR/USD breaches strong up-trend
Apart from a 50-pip surge md-Monday, the common European currency showed no intention to leave its narrow trading range, thus leaving the market at a relative equilibrium.Even though bulls did not push higher in the previous sessions, bears nevertheless failed to take the upper hand. This suggests that bulls could still gather slight momentum and push the rate higher. A possible upside target in this case could be the weekly R1 at 1.2311. The pair's subsequent movement should be tended south towards the upper boundary of the breached ascending channel and the 55-hour SMA circa 1.22.
By and large, the US Dollar still remains weakened against its major counterparts. Thus, the Euro will continue surging until this period of value decline ends.
Hourly Chart
As apparent on the daily time-frame, the bullish sentiment that pushed the Euro higher in previous sessions has ended, thus allowing for bears to dominate the market on Tuesday morning. It is likely that this direction is maintained within this week.
Daily Chart
Market sentiment is bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment has increased, as 71% of open positions are short (unchanged from Monday).
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 74% bearish and the Dollar is 61% bullish.
OANDA traders remain bearish, as 67% (+3%) of open positions are short. SAXO Bank clients are likewise bearish on the pair with 59% short positions (-2%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility