- SWFX traders are 51% bearish
- 61% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to SELL the gold
- Commodity pair tests 200-hour SMA
- Upcoming events: US Crude Oil Inventories, Import Prices
In result of previous trading session the pair made a breakout from symmetrical triangle to southern direction. Despite the barrier formed by the 200-hour SMA and the upper boundary of channel up, the rate is still expected to continue heading downwards.
The US employment growth weakened significantly in December due to a decrease in retail jobs, while a surge in monthly pay gains indicated the labour market strength, which could enable the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in Spring. The Labour Department stated that the non-farm payrolls increased 148K in the reported month, following an upwardly revised 252K in November. Job growth is anticipated to moderate as the labour market remains close to full employment, though with some chances to get a boost from $1.5T tax cuts package.
Still no releases
Today economic calendar does not contain any macroeconomic data releases that could affect valuation of the given commodity pair.
XAU/USD tests 200-hour SMA
Contrary to expectations, gold traders decided not to wait this week's American fundamental data releases and pushed the pair from symmetrical triangle pattern. Despite combined support level formed by the lower trend-line of an ascending channel and the 200-hour SMA near the 1,310.00 mark, the exchange rate is projected to continue moving downwards. Such assumption is based on picture seen on daily chart, where the pair has recently made a rebound from the upper edge of a four-month long descending channel. Such scenario is partially confirmed by allocation of pending orders, which are set to sell. In that case the fully-fledged might happen only when the pair will reach the 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at 1,297.200.
Hourly Chart
By the end of the previous trading session the pair has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,311.48. In short-run bulls are likely to try to push the pair back to the upper boundary of a four-month long channel down. However, in larger perspective the yellow metal is expected to continue losing value against the buck.
Daily Chart
Markets sentiment is neutral
SWFX market sentiment is neutral on Gold, as 51% of open positions are short. Accordingly, the same number of pending commands is set to buy the commodity.
OANDA traders are bearish, as 60% of open positions are short (+3%). In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are 53% bearish.