On Friday morning, the rate fluctuated above the support of the 1.1800 mark, which consisted of the 55 and 200-hour SMAs and a weekly simple pivot point.
Economic Calendar Analysis
The week will end with the US Retail Sales data release on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
Next week, despite the week having high impact events on the calendar, Dukascopy Analytics do not expect notable macroeconomic data caused moves.
First of all, note that the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will not have a rate announcement and a statement. The Meeting Minutes on their own were excluded from the historical data analysis after for a half-year period it caused only four pip moves on the EUR/USD.
On Thursday, the weekly US Unemployment Claims are set to be published at 12:30 GMT. The event has caused minor moves throughout July, as the main pair EUR/USD moved around ten pips during the announcement.
On Friday, watch out for the German PMI data at 07:30 GMT, as the EUR/USD rate could move more than ten pips.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
On the hourly candle chart, the rate stands at the support of the 1.1800 level, which as mentioned above consists of three technical levels. The near term forecasts are based upon what would happened at the support levels.In a first scenario, the support could hold and another attempt to surge to the 1.1900 mark would take place. In this case, note that the 1.1860 level could once again keep the pair down. In addition, other round price levels like the 1.1840 and 1.1880 might provide resistance.
In a second scenario, the rate would fall below the 1.1800 mark and immediately test the support of the 100-hour simple moving average at 1.1780. If this level does not gold, next target would be the zone from 1.1700 to 1.1720, which caused the last two day surge.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the pair has respected the support of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1707 level. In the meantime, the rate is consolidating by trading sideways in the borders of a channel up pattern.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Short sentiment remains unchanged
Since last Friday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 65% of all EUR/USD open position volume has been in short positions.
This Friday, the sentiment increased to 67% short.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were set to buy in 55% of all cases.