USD/JPY finds support in SMAs

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Friday, the USD/JPY made an attempt to pass the resistance levels at 108.20 and failed. Since the attempt the rate has been finding support in the 55 and 200-hour simple moving averages that on Monday were located near the 107.80 mark.

Meanwhile, the rate was being kept down by the resistance of the 108.00 level.

Economic Calendar

On Tuesday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is set to be released at 14:00 GMT. The event has caused moves from 13.9 to 29.0 pips on the rate. Note that the largest reaction was on the September release.

On Wednesday, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be published at 12:15 GMT. This release has lost its significance during the last year, as it has caused moves from 5.2 to 19.0 pips since October 2018.

On Thursday, at 14:00 GMT the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is scheduled to be published. This release has caused rate adjustments on the USD/JPY from 8.0 to 27.3 pips since September 2018.

The week will end with the biggest event of the month in the US, the employment data publication, on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The release will consist of three data sets being published. The Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Average Hourly Earnings.

The Average Hourly Earnings is the top number to watch. It is closely followed in importance by the Non-Farm Employment change. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate can be ignored by financial traders.

The event has caused moves from 13.4 to 38.9 pips since May 2019.

All of the historical reaction data tables to all notable data releases have been published in a separate publication. To see the publication, click on the link below.

USD/JPY short-term daily review

On Friday, the USD/JPY currency pair tested the upper boundary of the rising wedge pattern at 108.20. During today's morning, the pair reversed north from the lower pattern line at 107.80.

From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that the US Dollar could continue to appreciate against the Japanese Yen within the given pattern. Note that the upper wedge line is located in the 108.25/108.35 area.

It is unlikely that bears could prevail in the market, and the exchange rate could breach the given pattern south due to the support cluster formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, as well the weekly PP in the 107.67/107.82 range.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the pair has passed the resistance of the 100-day simple moving averages, which was left behind at 107.80. In theory, the SMA should start providing support to the currency pair.

Meanwhile, the rate remains in a large scale ascending channel pattern. In theory, the pattern should guide the pair to the resistance levels near the 108.45 level.

Daily chart



Long position volume increases

On Monday, 56% of open USD/JPY position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up orders were bearish. Namely, in the 100-pip range 55% of pending orders were set to sell and 45% were to buy.

On Friday, 62% of orders were to sell.

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