The EUR/USD started the week by trading in Limbo around the 55-hour simple moving average. The moving average was heading lower and was expected to push the rate with it.
In general, as the rate had passed the support of the 1.0930 level, the pair had no technical support levels below it as low as 1.0891.
US Employment Data week
This week, there are a couple of US macroeconomic data releases, which might impact the EUR/USD.
On Tuesday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is set to be released at 14:00 GMT. The event has caused moves from 12.7 to 29 pips on the EUR/USD. Note that the largest reaction was on the September release.
On Wednesday, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be published at 12:15 GMT. This release has lost its significance during the last year, as it has caused moves from 5.3 to 11.5 pips since October 2018.
A move below ten pips during the time-frame that Dukascopy Analytics measure to compare data releases occurs without any events. It is normal volatility.
On Thursday, at 14:00 GMT the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is scheduled to be published. This release has caused rate adjustments on the EUR/USD from 7.5 to 18.6 pips since September 2018.
The week will end with the biggest event of the month in the US, the employment data publication, on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The release will consist of three data sets being published. The Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Average Hourly Earnings.
The Average Hourly Earnings is the top number to watch. It is closely followed in importance by the Non-Farm Employment change. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate can be ignored by financial traders.
The event has caused moves from 13.3 to 48 pips on the EUR/USD since May 2019.
All of the historical reaction data tables to all notable data releases have been published in a separate publication. To see the publication, click on the link below.
Read More: 30.09-06.10 Event Historical Reactions
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
Note that the exchange rate is pressured by the 55– and 100-hour moving averages, currently located at 1.0935 and 1.0960 respectively. Thus, it is likely that bears could prevail in the market in the short term. In this case the rate has to surpass the 2019 low at 1.0916.If the given level holds, it is likely that the European Common Currency could consolidate against the Greenback within the following session. Also, it is unlikely that the pair could exceed the 1.0950 area due to the resistance of the upper boundary of the short-term descending channel and the weekly PP.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the rate has paused its decline in the borders of a large scale descending channel pattern.
Meanwhile, the daily simple moving averages have been left behind above the 1.1070 level. It indicates that the rate is oversold and it could trade sideways.
Sideways trading in the borders of the channel down pattern could occur until even October 21, as on that date the upper trend line of the pattern would reach the 1.0955 level.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders remain short
Since Thursday morning, 62% of open EUR/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.
At the start of a new week, the sentiment was 61% short.
Meanwhile, pending trade orders were bullish, as 55% of orders in the 100-pip range were set to buy and 45% were to sell.
Previously, the orders were 66% to buy.