GBP/USD drops below long term support

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD continued to plummet, as the rate reached the 1.2120 level during the early London trading hours.

In general, the rate has no technical support levels and decline.

On the other hand, note that the rate is expecting the announcements of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England on Wednesday and Thursday.

Latest Fundamental Event Report

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the US Advance GDP data, which came out better-than-expected of 2.1% compared with the forecast of 1.8%.

According to the official release: "The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased."


Main focus on central banks



This week top attention will be paid to the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open market Committee announcements on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT.

In general, the markets expect a US Dollar interest rate cut. Besides that each monetary policy announcement since November 2018 has caused a move on the GBP/USD in the range from 23.4 to 53.8.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday the US CB Consumer Confidence publication could cause a move above ten base points at 14:00 GMT.

In addition, note that the financial media might comment and look at the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change that is scheduled to be published on Wednesday at 12:15 GMT.

However, historical data reveals that during the time period of five minutes before the release and five minutes afterwards the GBP/USD has moved from 6.8 to 15.6 pips since August 2018.

Main event in the UK will occur on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. The Bank of England will announce its monetary policy. Namely, the rate, votes on the rate, Inflation Report and Monetary Policy Summary will be published.

The event has caused moves from 21 to 43.5 pips since November 2018.

In addition, on Thursday the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published at 14:00 GMT. This event has caused moves from 13.2 to 25.4 base points.

On Friday, the US employment data will be published. It will consist of the US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and the official Unemployment Rate. This release has caused moves from 14.8 to 34.1 base points.

GBP/USD short-term review

On Tuesday morning, the decline of the GBP/USD had reached below the last weekly pivot point. Namely, the rate had no technical support as low as the historical low level of 2017 at 1.1978.

Although, note that most likely round levels will provide psychological support to the currency exchange rate. Namely, the decline could pause at 1.2100, 1.2050 and 1.2000.

On the other hand, the rate most likely will trade sideways until the Federal Reserve Interest Rate announcement on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the dominant descending channel pattern's lower trend line, which held the pair up since May, has been broken.

An update to the large scale patterns will be made as soon as the central bank announcements are made.

Daily chart


Traders remain long

On Tuesday, 70% of open GBP/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were almost neutral, as 53% of orders were set to buy and 47% were to sell.

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