GBP/USD reaches dominant trend line

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • The Swiss market is 55% bullish on the pair
  • 58% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
  • US Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT

The Bank of England announcement did not cause much volatility. However, the certainty induced into the market that the rate will not suddenly change, allowed the GBP/USD to surge up to the upper trend line of a dominant ascending pattern.

British Pound depreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK Official Bank Rate on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate lost 23 pips or 0.18% during a minute, right after the release. The market did not react on the data release at all at this time.

The Bank of England released Bank of England Official Bank Rate data that came out in line with expectations of 0.75%. The Votes and Monetary Policy Summary together with the MPC Official Bank Rate data release came out today at 11:00 GMT, in which all votes were in favor to hold the rate unchanged.

The Central Bank said: "Since the Committee's previous meeting, there have been indications, most prominently in financial markets, of greater uncertainty about future developments in the (EU) withdrawal process."

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US Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT





The week's macroeconomic data releases will end at 12:30 GMT. At that time the US Retail Sales will be published.

The data release will be covered by the Dukascopy Analytics team on the bank's live webinar platform. The event will start at 12:20 GMT.

Join the Webinar: Webinar Platform


GBP/USD short term review

The hourly chart reveals the pair's movements near the upper trend line of the dominant pattern. It can be observed that the currency exchange rate is making attempt to break it. If it surges above it, the 1.3156 level, where a pivot point is located at, will attempt to stop the surge.

Meanwhile, if the pair bounces off the resistance of the pattern, it will retrace down to the 55-hour simple moving average. The SMA was located at the 1.3060 level on Friday morning.

Hourly Chart



Previously, on the daily chart Dukascopy Analysts had drawn two possible versions for the larger, dominant pattern.

It turns out on Friday that the initially drawn pattern was the correct one, as the upper trend line of the second possible option was broken already on Thursday.

Daily chart






Global markets remain long

The Swiss trader sentiment remains unchanged on Friday. Namely, traders of the Swiss Foreign Exchange were long in 55% of all of their open positions.

In the meantime, trader set up orders, which indicate where the rate most likely will go next, are set to buy the pair in 54% of all cases. The orders have remained almost neutral during the recent past.

Meanwhile, larger brokerages have decreased their long position amount, as their traders most likely took profits from the recent surge. OANDA traders are 62% bullish. Previously, 67% of open positions were long at the brokerage.

In the meantime, traders at SAXO Bank are 52% long on the GBP/USD pair. The sentiment was 54% long on Thursday.


Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility

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