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A base case scenario is a break-out to the upside through the down-trend at 1.0950 with a target at 1.1120, where the weekly R2 level coincides with the monthly R1. The rally in the near-term is also implied by the four-hour and daily technical indicators, but the longer-term studies say the Aussie is already overbought. At the same time, the sentiment is strongly bearish—74% of open positions are short.
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