CAD/JPY 4H Chart: Triangle

Pair has been narrowing its trading range for the past 3 months—from 900 pips in the middle of May to 200 pips in today. Pair is currently trading in the last fifth of the pattern, thus we are facing elevated probability of a break out. Since medium and long term technicals give opposite outlook from the short term technicals we could expect some increased volatility trading or an attempt to breach the through the pattern's resistance and a bearish pullback followed by eventual breakout through the pattern's support. On the other notion, it seems that Fibonacci retracements (13th of May till 13th of June move) are having significant impact on the pair.