NZD/JPY bull market distracted by short-term sell-off

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
NZD/JPY kicked off year 2016 with a volatile consolidation inside of the bounds of a falling wedge that has been established over the last two or so years. While the scope of fluctuations in June reached 12 percent, the pair did not manage to close outside of the wedge trend-lines, but set ground for a breakout on September 1, which has led to a two percent rally over the first five days already. Although future developments are likely to be bullish in general, we do expect that the demand area at 73.85 where the broken trend-line lies will experience some more action. This is consistent with a break out of the upward channel bottom trend-line on the hourly chart which suggests that a dive to the aforementioned level is scheduled. 

Monthly Chart:
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Strong support at 76.00 has just been reaffirmed when the pair failed at it for the third time since the beginning of the month and signalled that a double top could be confirmed if the currency does not attempt any more highs, but makes its way straight to the four day support at 75.48.

Near-term supports cluster at 75.69/72 and could put the pair's bearish momentum to test, causing it to struggle to reach the target support at 75.48. If attempts to break below this support are successful, a dive towards the 75.37/41 area will come next. Two more significant supports will then have to be conquered in order to complete the dip towards the 74.19 rebound level.  

Daily Chart:
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Potential for immediate rally 

Major bullish pressure put on by various time-frame SMAs could still cause diversion from the expected track, forcing the pair to inch northwards with 76.21 (broken channel trend-line) as its next target. The current dip could as well be an extended preface for the rebound from the lower channel trend-line.  

Volatility can be expected later during Tuesday when the GDT Price Index for New Zealand comes out, while Wednesday will be a day rich with Japanese data releases which the market could consider of significance as well.

Aggregate Technical Indicators:
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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