The rate lies close to the upper Bollinger Band, touching it repeatedly, which suggests that the pair is overbought. This might be the case, however, it is not supported by SWFX sentiment index data, which shows the Euro to be slightly (56%) oversold.
Weekly Chart
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Bull market still viable
In case an upward breakout, however, does take place, the pair will target the daily PP and upper Bollinger Band cluster (1.4802) on its way north, followed by the 200-hour SMA at 1.4811 and 1.4857 after that.
The currency pair will have to break out from the 1.5453 level in order to rebound and rally towards resistances at 1.5973 and 1.6149. A broadening bottom in the daily chart speaks in bulls' favour, while the broken senior and hourly uptrend reduces potential for northward movements at 1.4781/59. BUY signals from longer horizon aggregate technical indicators, namely the daily, weekly and monthly ones add more ground to the possibility of a bullish market over the following months.
Daily Chart
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Fundamental surprises fail to induce major volatility
EUR/AUD dipped 0.22% upon a positive Australian Building Approval data surprise evenly over the following hours. The shift came relatively limited in its amplitude, as the gauge showed 11.3% instead of the expected 0% change which could have induced much more volatility. A 0.2% surprise in the monthly German Import prices; however caused the Euro to rally 0.28%. A set of additional fundamental data, however, failed to move markets significantly. A negative retail sales surprise did not cause the appreciation of the Euro, unexpectedly pushing the pair even lower.
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