EUR/USD to test 1.2750

The European currency has finally stepped away from the resistance at 1.29, and now it is getting ready to challenge the 2013 low at 1.2750. A breach of this support will expose 1.2650, namely the 2012 Q4 low. This will also most likely imply continuation of the current sell-off until the price falls to the 2012's main trough at 1.2050. Conversely, should we see a rebound, EUR/USD is not expected to wander far beyond the monthly S2 level.

Judging by the change in the distribution between the buy and sell orders, from 32 and 68% to 58 and 42%, the rate moved from the dense supply area and is now starting to feel the buying pressure—the share of long positions has already increased from 59 to 62%.