EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The steep descent from the late August peak near 1.1700 has driven EUR/USD down toward the lower boundary of a well-defined descending channel, setting the stage for a potential counter-trend reversal or relief rally. The current test of the 1.1165 low places price directly above a major multi-month support shelf situated around 1.1120 – 1.1150. Because price action is now severely stretched below the downward-sloping 20-day SMA, downward momentum is increasingly vulnerable to seller exhaustion and mean-reversion forces, especially as the lower channel trendline provides dynamic horizontal and diagonal confluence.



A technical reversal would be confirmed if daily price action prints a bullish rejection candle off this 1.1120 – 1.1150 base. A breakout above the descending channel's upper rail would likely trigger a sharp short-squeeze, with the initial recovery target located at the prior horizontal support-turned-resistance zone near 1.1380 – 1.1400, confluent with the descending 20-day SMA. Conversely, should the pair fail to hold above 1.1120 on a daily closing basis, the reversal setup would be invalidated, opening the door for an extended slide toward the 1.1000 barrier.
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