— Martin Beck, Oxford Economics
Pay growth in the United Kingdom dropped below inflation for the first time in more than two years, official figures revealed on Wednesday. The Office for National Statistics reported that wage growth, excluding bonuses, advanced 2.1% on an annual basis in the March quarter, the weakest gain since the three-month period to July 2016. Thus, pay growth adjusted for inflation dropped 0.2%, the first decline since the Q3 of 2014. Including bonuses, average hourly earnings increased 2.4% in the Q1 of 2017, after rising 2.3% in the three-month period to February. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the lowest in more than forty years, suggesting that the British labour market remained strong despite weak wage growth. Meanwhile, market analysts expected the jobless rate to remain unchanged at 4.5% during the reported month. However, the claimant count change rose a seasonally adjusted 19.4K in April, following an upwardly revised climb of 33.5K in the preceding month. If pay growth remains below inflation growth consumer spending will likely stop supporting economic growth in Britain.
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