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- Katja Hall, CBI Chief Policy Director
The Sterling has a great chance to extend this year's rally this week, as GDP, manufacturing and construction PMI as well as consumer confidence can add more pressure on Mark Carney to consider making a rate hike earlier than it was pledged. At the same time, technical indicators on daily and monthly charts are supporting the case for further appreciation.
The consensus forecast for the first quarter stands for 3.2% on a annual basis and 0.9% on a monthly. While Tuesday's report can surprise markets' to the upside, future figures are expected to be even more optimistic. The latest monthly survey of 675 British companies showed that growth expectations stood at the highest level since the Confederation of British Industry started collecting data in 2003. Over the year growth will be underpinned by stronger business and consumer confidence as well as supportive monetary conditions. Entrepreneurs expecting stronger growth in all key pillars of the economy– manufacturing, construction and services sectors. The balance of optimists rose to +25% from +19% in the previous survey. Earlier this month the ONS reported that wage growth finally caught up with inflationary pressure. Weekly wages climbed 1.7% in the year to February, marking the first time earning have matched inflation in six years and pointing at further improvement in the labour market.
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