Consumer Sentiment in Australia Collapses: Fuel and Rate Shocks Trigger 12.5% Drop

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Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted 12.5% in April 2026, dropping from a March reading of 91.6 to a staggering 80.1. This collapse represents the most significant monthly decline since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, pulling the index down toward historical lows last seen during the deep recessions of the 1980s and early 1990s. This dramatic shift is being driven by a severe renewal of the cost-of-living crisis, sparked by a 25 basis point interest rate hike and a massive surge in fuel prices resulting from the US-Israel conflict with Iran.



By the first week of April, fuel costs reached an average of $2.40 per litre, marking an increase of 37 cents since March and 77 cents since February. This represents the largest price surge in the history of the survey, proportionally similar to the 50% annual hike during the 1979 oil crisis, and occurred despite a temporary federal fuel excise cut of 26 cents per litre that only briefly offset the rising costs. Within the five sub-indexes that form the composite measure, the components tracking current conditions suffered the most, with assessments of family finances compared to a year ago plunging 16.7% to a highly depressed reading of 66.8.

This sits just above the levels recorded during the peak inflation fight of 2022 to 2024. As consumers brace for a prolonged era of economic weakness, near-term expectations have reverted to the depths of previous crises, while job security fears have climbed to a ten-year high if the anomalous COVID-19 period is excluded. Furthermore, the previous optimism surrounding the housing market has faded as consumers become increasingly less bullish about the outlook for house prices moving forward.
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