US Retail Sales data strengthens the USD

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA


The US Census Bureau has published the United States monthly retail sales data. In general, the data shows high demand at the retail level. The publication strengthened the US Dollar's value.

Higher retail sales indicate that consumers continue to buy despite rising prices. The data signals that retailers can and will continue to increase prices and inflation will continue to grow. Rising inflation would force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer or even hike rates. This in turn is strengthening the US Dollar.

The Retail Sales month on month reading was expected to show an increase of 0.4%. Released data shows a surge of 0.7%. Core Retail Sales that exclude auto sales were forecast to increase by 0.5%. Actual change is 1.1%

Moreover, the prior month's data has been revised upwards. Retail Sales grew 0.9% instead of 0.6% in February. Core Retail Sales expanded by 0.6% instead of 0.3%. These revision move the growth numbers from below to above what markets expected last month.

Combined with last week's higher than expected inflation data, the retail sales signal that there will be no rate cuts during 2024. Moreover, rate hikes could be done to stop price surges.
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