Expert Commentary

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Thu, 22 Mar 2012 08:29:36 GMT

Yuqing Xing on the Yuan internationalisation

For more than three years, China has been developing a strategic plan to globalize the Yuan. It was announced last week , that China is planning to extend the Yuan-denominated loans to BRICS countries, which would be a significant step towards increasing the "people's currency" role in cross-border trade settlement.Following the interview with Roy Teo, FX Strategist at ABN Amro

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 17:18:11 GMT

Carolin Hecht on the US Dollar

The US Dollar appreciated against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday. The dollar's recent strengthening has been driven by improving economic data of the US and the Federal Reserve's positive outlook.C. Hecht, Currency Strategist at Commerzbank, evaluated the greenback's performance and gave a forecast for the US Dollar against the basket of currencies for a short and long term.

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 14:59:06 GMT

JP Morgan Chase & Co forecast for ASD/JPY, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY

The Euro and the Australian Dollar reached their highest levels against the Japanese currency since October '11 and May '11, respectively, while the US dollar slightly lost its value due to a setback last week. Dukascopy interviewed the Head of FX Strategy at JP Morgan Chase & Co in Singapore concerning a forecast for ASD/JPY, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY.

Fri, 16 Mar 2012 10:52:03 GMT

Roy Teo on the Yuan's role in International Trade

For more than three years, China has been developing a strategic plan to globalize the Yuan. It was announced last week , that China is planning to ex-tend the Yuan-denominated loans to BRICS countries, which would be a significant step in increasing the "people's currency" role in cross border trade settlement.

Wed, 14 Mar 2012 07:09:14 GMT

Hersh Shefrin on Libor-setting system

Dukascopy is carrying out a research to evaluate the current Libor-setting system, find out whether new measures proposed by the BBA can combat the potential future manipulations.

Mon, 12 Mar 2012 11:18:45 GMT

Mike Jones on the New Zealand Dollar

The recent NZD performance can only be described as strong. The currency is currently around 25% above its long-run average or around 30% above its PPP equilibrium. While the high NZD partly reflects positive cyclical fundamentals like high NZ commodity prices, the currency still looks a shade overvalued.

Wed, 07 Mar 2012 08:49:30 GMT

O. Morand on the US economy

In light of a steady recovery of the US economy, Dukascopy decided to interview Olivier Morand, Professor of Economics at University of Connecticut, who shared his opinion on the present economic situation in the US and its prospects.

Tue, 06 Mar 2012 08:19:41 GMT

N. Novikova on the economy of the Russian Federation

For this year we anticipate that GDP growth will shrink from 4.3-4% to 3-3.5%.

Fri, 02 Mar 2012 15:30:33 GMT

Jane Foley expects the Yen to weaken further

The yen fell to a nine-month low against the dollar dropping 0.6 percent to 81.63 per dollar on Friday. Japan's currency also lost 0.3 percent of its value against the EU common currency falling to 108.33 per euro. The yen has weakened 7 percent in the past three months, what makes the Japan's currency the worst performer among 10 key

Fri, 02 Mar 2012 05:46:41 GMT

Prof. Makin doubts whether Eurozone will raise the size of bailout fund

I doubt whether Eurozone leaders will raise the limit, nor should they in my opinion. There is a risk that bailouts of this kind serve only to delay the inevitable.

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 06:14:20 GMT

P. Robson on EUR/USD

LTRO are increasing amount of euros in circulation. There is now over 300 billion more euros in the monetary system. Therefore, the price tends to go down, it is all about supply and demand. Now we have a small pull back, but we would not expect it to persist, because we think that the market would embrace the potential positive

Tue, 28 Feb 2012 18:29:48 GMT

R. Camarena's and C. Robertson's commentary on the IMF bailout fund

I believe the Eurozone leaders will meet the requirements of G20 and will increase the funding limit. Nevertheless, it will take some time for countries like Mexico, which are willing to contribute to the fund of the IMF. I think, that finally all the G20 countries will raise money necessary for the IMF.

Mon, 27 Feb 2012 20:28:00 GMT

Amrita Sen shares her opinion on oil and gold

I think for oil the fundamentals are very strong, while inventories and oil spare capacities are very low. If we look at the downside risks which are primarily concerning Greece and the EU sovereign debt that should becoming a bigger financial issue, that is receding very quickly. Whereas, on the other side the geopolitical issue is rising Iran tensions. The

Fri, 24 Feb 2012 19:29:01 GMT

R. Timberlake on Greece

I do not have an optimistic view of any government in the world when the subject is 'Fiscal Responsibility.' Only when a government holds up a Constitution declaring that it cannot spend more than what is taxed in any one year, and lets the private sector manage ALL the welfare problems of that country would I find any optimism.

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 16:30:15 GMT

Lothar Hessler on German economy

Currently, the German economy is favourable, as the domestic demand is in a very good position same as consumption, which has increased due to the good situation in German labour market. We predict that the consumer spending will increase by 1 % this year.

Tue, 21 Feb 2012 15:33:19 GMT

Filip Petersson on the price of crude oil and its impact on the EU economy

I believe that the sanctions imposed on Iran, the EU decision to stop importing crude oil and agreement on the second bailout package for Greece will significantly affect the consumer prices in the EU.

Tue, 21 Feb 2012 11:14:43 GMT

Ricardo Cabral on the situation in Portugal

The Portuguese government, being under the auspices and directions of the EC-ECB-IMF, are currently implementing the exact same measures that the Greek government implemented in Greece, under the diktat of the troika.

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 19:55:37 GMT

Sverre Holbek on USD/JPY

By the end of the Q1 we forecast the Japanese currency to hit the level of 78

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 16:04:04 GMT

Colin Asher on USD/JPY

I do not have a particularly excited forecast for the year, I guess it is going to be rather flattish. My official forecast for the USD/JPY is around 80 at the end of Q4.

Tue, 14 Feb 2012 15:17:18 GMT

Shant Movsesian on GBP/USD and EUR/USD

The Pound has been obviously knocked on the immediate reaction on the Moody's cutting the credit ratings of the troubled Euro zone countries. To be perfectly honest, I do not think the rating agencies tend to have much of an impact on the markets. They do not really reveal to us anything we do not know.

Tue, 14 Feb 2012 08:41:00 GMT

Jonathan Cavenagh on Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has been very strong since the start of the year and it is very much case that we have seen a lot of good news. However, the currency may be under selling pressure over the next month or so, probably in March rather than February.

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 09:03:18 GMT

Ankita Dudani on American and Canadian Dollars

Undoubtedly, the data on US economy has been recently very good. We are witnessing some upside surprises from data globally, not only in the US. We consider there is a positive momentum that will continue for a bit longer. We have a fairly bullish outlook for the Dollar in the first half of 2012, but in the second half we

Tue, 07 Feb 2012 05:56:15 GMT

Edward Walk on Eurozone and EUR/USD

Edward WalkChief Economist at MetzlerThe current situation with the European economy? Well, it seems that the troika of inspectors - the IMF, the EU and the ECB are not satisfied with Greece because it did not fulfill their main requirements - austerity and restructuring of bonds. I think that especially Germany has lost patience and there is a high probability that

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 08:31:24 GMT

Goffrey Yu on EUR/NOK, EUR/SEK, EUR/CHF and USD/JPY

Currently we have a slightly negative outlook on the Scandinavian currencies due to their apparent economic exposure to the Euro zone debt crisis and the ongoing uncertainty over the resolution of the economic doldrums. We have a below consensus view on the Euro zone and we are anticipating some growth outlook ahead.

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