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I suppose that the current trend in consumer prices will improve in the nearest future; however, this improvement will be relatively modest given the fact that the base effect of oil price and the Euro exchange rate are not expected to rise a lot. Against the background, I would suggest that there is no real upward trend in the consumer prices in Europe.
What will be the major drivers for the Euro through next month?
Speaking about the Euro alone, I would say that in the upcoming month not much is expected, as the ECB is set to continue its purchasing program which they are not planning to change next month. There have been really few impulses from the European side as of late, though we have seen a lot of impulses from the US side, which will eventually continue over the next month as well. Besides all of the above, the European economy is doing quite good at the moment and I see this firm trend continuing; therefore, that should be positive for the Euro.
What are your forecasts for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY for the end of the quarter?
For the end of the first quarter this year, I see the Euro rallying to 1.15 versus the US Dollar, while the EUR/JPY currency pair I expect to trade at 115.
Overall, we anticipate the US Dollar to weaken because of the President Donald Trump's recent rhetoric. We have already seen some uncertainty over the last couple of days and I would expect the Greenback to be quite over-worried, responding to political developments months after the election. There is a lot of optimism in the US Dollar that will eventually fade; thus, we see a rebound in the Euro against the US dollar and also in the Yen against the Greenback.