Gold outlook

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Gold's outlook for 2026 remains uncertain, with market volatility and geopolitical risks expected to continue. Current prices reflect the main economic expectations, suggesting gold may trade within a narrow range if conditions do not change significantly. Factors that tend to support gold, such as slower growth, lower interest rates, and ongoing global tensions, appear stronger than those that could weaken it.

Under the base-case scenario, global growth stays near trend, the US Federal Reserve cuts rates modestly, and the US dollar and bond yields remain fairly stable. In this case, gold is likely to move sideways.



If the global economy slows more sharply and uncertainty increases, gold could benefit from safe-haven demand and rise strongly. A milder slowdown would still support prices. On the other hand, if economic growth accelerates and inflation picks up, higher interest rates and a stronger dollar could push gold prices lower, leading to a slight decline. Central bank buying and gold recycling will also influence prices. Continued purchases by central banks support gold, while low recycling limits supply. However, reduced central bank demand or increased selling during a severe downturn could pressure prices. Overall, the wide range of possible outcomes highlights gold's role as a stable investment and a useful hedge against uncertainty in 2026.
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