USD/JPY outlook for 2025

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The strength of the US economy plays a pivotal role in influencing the USD/JPY exchange rate. As the US shows resilience with strong GDP growth, low unemployment, and rising consumer confidence, the Federal Reserve maintains or even increases interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. This expectation of higher returns from US assets due to higher interest rates attracts more foreign capital to the US, strengthening the USD against the JPY. Looking ahead to 2025, if these economic trends continue, the US is likely to maintain its economic strength, and the Fed could further tighten its policies to manage inflation, supporting a stronger USD throughout the year. This sustained strength in the US economy is expected to keep demand for USD-denominated assets high, potentially leading to further upward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate.



The USD/JPY exchange rate is likely to rise due to several factors; the Fed's proactive stance on inflation, making the USD more attractive compared to Japan's lower inflation and cautious BoJ policy; and market expectations of a widening interest rate differential, with the Fed maintaining a hawkish approach while the BoJ moves slowly on tightening. These factors combined suggest a stronger USD and an upward trend in the USD/JPY exchange rate.
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