Ole S Hansen: Commodities will stay weak in January and see gain in March with 70% probability

After good performance in Q1 of 2011 the risk-aversion returned and put the investors off the commodity market with S&P GSCI commodity index seeing the first slight drop since 2008, DJ UBS commodity index tumbling by 13% and Reuters Jefferies CRB index ended the year 8% lower. However, commodity price movements can be attributed to seasonality as S&P GSCI index tended to trade negative in January in 7 out of 10 last years followed by strong performance in March.