Gold still below senior downtrend

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • 61% of all SWFX open positions are long
  • Pending orders optimistic with 62% to buy
  • Gold opened Friday's session at 1,127.96
  • Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US building permits; US housing starts
Gold erased some of the losses posted on Thursday with a green candle Friday morning, but still remained below the senior downtrend which it dived underneath amid the Fed rate hike announcement Wednesday afternoon. It now appears that the pair is attempting to undergo a retracement of the broken trend-line at 1,140.46. A single resistance level will mess with the momentum at 1,135.96 and we will have to watch the hourly chart closely to see when the correction is completed. Being quite far into it right now, it is likely that Friday will close in the red zone as an extensive dive follows in the second part of the day.

UUS consumer prices rose at a slower pace last month compared with October but the underlying inflation trend remained promising. On Thursday, the US Department of Labor said its Consumer Price Index advanced 0.2% in November after rising 0.4% in the preceding month as food costs moderated and the price of gasoline fell. On an annual basis, the CPI climbed 1.7%, the largest increase since October 2014, following the previous month's 1.6% gain. Analysts expected the CPI grow 0.2% on a monthly basis and 1.7% compared to a year ago in the reported month. Meanwhile, the so-called Core CPI jumped 0.2% in November after climbing 0.1% in October, driven by higher rents. Despite last month's increase, the annual core inflation rate held steady at 2.1%. Other data released on the same day showed the US Philly Fed Index jumped to 21.5 in November, up from October's 7.6 and well above forecasts of 9.1 points, whereas the Department of Labor reported the number of initial claims dropped 4,000 to 254,000 in the week ending December 10, compared to the preceding week's 258,000. After the release, the US Dollar was seen trading at 1.0419 against the Euro, 117.99 against the Japanese Yen and 1.2470 against the British Pound.

The US unemployment rate fell to a nine-year low in November, adding to expectations that US interest rates will rise later this month. Figures from the Labor Department showed the US economy created 178,000 jobs in November, while the jobless rate fell to 4.6% from 4.9% in October. The first employment report since voters went to the polls last month shows an economy in strong shape as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office. The unemployment rate fell to levels not seen since August 2007, before a bubble in the U.S. housing market began to burst. The fall was driven partly by the creation of new jobs and partly by people retiring and otherwise leaving the labor force. In addition, average hourly earnings in the US fell more-than-expected last month touching a seasonally adjusted -0.1%, from 0.4% in the preceding month. The data release comes ahead of the Fed's meeting, when the central bank is expected to announce its first interest rate increase in a year.

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Upcoming fundamental releases: US building permits; US housing starts

There will likely be little pressures from fundamental releases that could shake up the Gold market. Medium impact data, such as the EU final CPI and US housing starts coming out at 10:00 GMT and 13:30 GMT respectively, will serve as a warm-up for higher impact news, namely US building permits which could cause some surprise movements if targets are not met.



Gold gains amid correction

Daily chart: The Bullion opened slightly above Thursday's closing price on Friday and went on to push through the bottom Bollinger Band at 1,129.92 to now face 1,135.96. The pair will definitely hitch at the area before a retracement of the broken trend-line is executed at 1,140.46. Currently mid-channel, the pair has set the floor at the bottom trend-line of the pattern where it is bolstered by the monthly S1 and weekly S3. We see the pair closing in the red zone after the correction is completed and we will turn to the hourly chart to evaluate the corrective process.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that the pair is far into the retracement already and might require until the afternoon to complete the motion. However, given the proximity to the senior downtrend, it would be no surprise if a bearish motion would extend almost right away. Immediate resistance is at 1,135.96 with more risk at 1,137.17, the upper Bollinger Band. The demand area of 1,132.12 is right below the current reading and the bottom Bollinger Band at 1,127.04 will serve as the target when the area is broken.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX sentiment stays the same

Traders reminded optimistic on the bullion showing a 61% long position proportion, same as the two previous sessions, while long pending orders fell by 5% and resulted in a 62% reading.

The optimistic OANDA Gold traders have found the Bullion slightly less attractive on Friday, as open positions were 81.70& long, compared to 80.92% on Thursday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank seem to have slightly decreased their bullish stance, as Friday showed 64.57% of traders betting the metal will surge, compared to 68.13% during the previous session.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of gold at 1,235 by March

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between November 16 and December 16 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,235 mid-March. Generally, 36% (-4%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 35% of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,150 and 1,300 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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