- SWFX traders are 51% bullish
- 57% of pending orders are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,267.15
- Upcoming Events: US Average Hourly Earnings; US Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment Rate
The bullion is falling, as it has retreated even below 1,260 mark during the early hours of Friday's trading session. In addition, various signs are showing that the decline might resume and the targeted supports will be near the 1,255 level. On the other hand, the long term hypothesis of a surge remains in force.
US private companies created more than expected jobs last month, official figures showed on Thursday. The ADP National Employment Report revealed that the US private sector added 253K new jobs to the economy in May, compared to the preceding month's downwardly revised gain of 174K positions. Meanwhile, analysts expected private firms to create 181K new jobs during the reported month. The Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said that wage growth would likely accelerate "through the year into 2018" amid the tightening labour market. Strong job creation is expected to comfy the Federal Reserve and force it to raise interest rates further in the upcoming months.
US Employment package
This Friday the markets will watch the fundamental economic calendars at 12:30 GMT. Moreover, the Dukascopy research team will include the coverage of the released data on the bank's online webinar platform. The data package will come from the US, and it will include mostly labour data. It will consist of Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, the Unemployment Rate and the Trade Balance.
XAU/USD falls back below 1,260 mark
The yellow metal suffered its biggest losses of the week on Friday morning. Once more the commodity price had retreated below the support of the weekly PP, which is located at the 1,261.80 level. Due to that fact it can be assumed that the metal once more faces the possibility of falling down to the levels near the 1,250 mark. Although, on Friday morning the closest support level after the weekly PP was the 55-day SMA at 1,255.90. However, during the week gold had retreated more than once below the weekly support and rebounded just near the 1,260 level, which might possibly occur once more.
Daily chart
The hourly chart reveals a surprise regarding the commodity price. Since the Dukascopy analysts keep intact old, broken patterns on the analysis charts for a possible activity of the trend lines, it has turned out to be productive this time. The reason for that is that it can be observed that not the weekly PP is providing support, but rather the previously active medium term descending channel's upper trend line is providing support to the metal. Moreover, it can be seen that, if the trend line near the 1,259 mark is passed, the way down to the 1,253 way is free on the hourly chart.
Hourly chart
Bulls remain dominant
SWFX traders have decreased their bullish sentiment, as 51% of open positions are long. In addition, 57% of set up orders are to buy the metal—a slight decrease from 58% on Thursday.
OANDA Gold traders remain bullish, as open positions are 65.22% long on Friday, compared to 65.00% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank are less bullish, as 55.31% of open positions are long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being near 1,350 in September
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between May 2 and June 2 expect, on average, to see the metal just below 1,350 in September. Generally, 43% (-1%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,350 in ninety days. Meanwhile, 34% of those surveyed reckon the metal will trade in the range between 1,250 and 1,350 over the next three months.