- Opened positions for Gold are strongly positive (70% bullish / 30% bearish)
- It is possible that Gold will grow in price, with the closest resistance for it located at 1,205
- At the same time, the probability of a downside movement exists as well, while for that purpose the closest support is placed at 1,180
- Upcoming events: US CB Consumer Confidence
Nevertheless, the precious metal remains under pressure amid weak investor sentiment and a strong Greenback. Bearish sentiment in the gold market was seen in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's biggest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, as the fund's holdings declined 0.08% to 712.30 tones on Friday, the lowest level in six years. On top of that, the upbeat outlook for the US Dollar, reflecting a resilient economy, and the possibility of interest rates hike has been hurting the yellow metal. The Dollar index, which measures the currency's value against a basket of currencies, was trading close to a nine-year high reached last week.
Concerning fundamental data, US durable goods orders unexpectedly slumped in November, largely owing to a weak demand for military and defense goods. The Commerce Department said that orders for long-lasting goods declined 0.7% last month, the third drop in the past four months. Much of the decrease was attributed to a sharp 8.1% fall in demand for defense-related goods. Excluding volatile transportation equipment, bookings slid 0.4%.
No major data to be published until New Year
As expected, the pre-New Year period will bring any considerably fundamental data due to a high number of bank holidays in many major economies of the world. The only high-importance data on Tuesday, December 30 is considered to be the US consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. However, it is still unlikely that the effect will be noticeable, while Gold will most probably remain trading with low volatility as the year's end approaches.XAU/USD returns back below down-trend
The XAU/USD cross has breached the most important resistance line, represented by the long-term downtrend and developed above this level for the past week. However, on December 15 Gold returned back, mostly amid fundamental factors. At the moment the most considerable resistance is represented by this long-term downtrend line, which is currently located at $1,205 and strengthened by the monthly R1, weekly PP and 55-day SMA.Daily chart
XAU/USD cross jumped considerably on Friday, as it was able to pierce through a major resistance line, represented by the 2013 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and weekly pivot point around $1,190. Moreover, Gold managed to consolidate above this level and remains stable for the time being. Therefore, we may assume the bullion will continue rising in price, with the next obstacle located at $1,205 (monthly R1). Along with that, while the cluster of mentioned lines around $1,190 has now become a considerable support, we would not expect it to be crossed to the downside in the foreseeable future.
Hourly chart
Long opened positions decreased to 70%
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Nov 29 and Dec 29 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,200 by the mid-March. At the same time, 48% of them believe the bullion will be above this mark in three months, while slightly less than one third of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.