- SWFX traders are 51% bullish
- 69% of pending orders in 500-pip range are set to BUY the gold
- Pair moves along 100-day SMA
- Upcoming Events: US Trade Balance, Factory Orders and FOMC Member Powell's speech
Despite positive news about the US non-manufacturing activity, a combination of the 55-hour SMA and the 100-day SMA managed to constrain appreciation of the buck against the gold. In short run, this support level is likely to prevent the rate from falling to the bottom and might even elevate it towards the 200-hour SMA. But, generally, the pair is expected to continue to move towards the bottom edge of the senior channel.
The US companies slashed hiring to the lowest level in 11 months in September owing to the disruption of business activities caused by Hurricanes Irma and Harvey, according to the ADP Employment report. The private survey showed that the country's businesses added 135K jobs in September, suggesting the most of Hurricane's impact forced small retailers to cut hiring.
Trade Balance release
From fundamental point of view, a release of information about the US Trade Balance is an important indicator that allows evaluating result of Donald Trump's economic policy, which is aimed to reduce trade balance deficit with Canada, Mexico, China, Thailand and other states. Unfortunately, this data release does not arouse especially high interest on financial markets. Nevertheless, trade of this news on the USD/CAD currency pair might bring certain profit, as at 12:30 GMT the Statistics Canada will publish an update on its own Trade Balance.
XAU/USD surges on the eve of Yellen speech
Because of the speech that is expected to be delivered by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen at a banking conference in St. Louis, the gold traders not only managed to pull the pair from the weekly S1 lying at the 1,266.63 level but also to push it from a junior descending channel. At the moment, the only barrier that it faces on its way is the 100-hour SMA, which is located slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Whether the pair will succeed to break through this resistance as well will heavily depend on release on information on the US employment data and of course the subsequent Yellen's speech. Nevertheless, none of these events are likely to change to the general picture, according to which the rate is expected to reach the lower support line of a dominant ascending channel and only then make a rebound.
Hourly Chart
At the moment, the pair is still fluctuating between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and 100-day SMA. Basically, a space between this resistance level is large enough to allow the pair to end this trading session also in a green zone. However, then a rebound should follow, as the pair is still expected to reach the bottom edge of a dominant ascending channel.Daily Chart
Markets sentiment becomes neutral
Traders of Dukascopy remain neutrally bullish on valuation of the gold, as 51% of open positions are long. In the meantime, 51% of pending commands are to sell the commodity.
OANDA Gold traders are bullish, as 64% (-1%) of open positions are long, compared to previous trading session. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are similarly bullish, as 68% (+3%) of open positions are also long.