- SWFX market sentiment is 74% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 59% of cases
- Brexit vote might bring in risk on sentiment, decreasing gold prices
After reaching the 1,250.00 level the yellow metal began a retreat down to the previously passed Fibonacci retracement levels. From a Fundamental Analysis perspective, the metal's price is expected to be influenced by the Brexit vote. Namely, if the GBP/USD surges, as risk on sentiment increases, gold prices should decline. That would occur due to a positive vote on the Brexit deal.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Automatic Data Processing, Inc. released the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data that came out lower than expected of 179K, compare to forecasted 195K.
Ahu Yildirmaz, the Vice President and Co-Head of the ADP Research Institute said, "Although the labor market performed well, job growth decelerated slightly. Midsized businesses added nearly 70 percent of all jobs this month. This growth points to the midsized businesses' ability to provide stronger wages and benefits. It also suggests they could be more insulated from the global challenges large enterprises face."
UK takes away strength from a buys macroeconomic release week
On Tuesday, all attention will be on the Brexit vote. It is set to take away attention from all other events in the financial markets.However, note that on Tuesday the UK Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate are set to be published at 09:30 GMT. This data release usually causes a reaction on the GBP/USD from 15 to 30 pips. Although, a reaction just prior to the Brexit vote is unlikely.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday the US Producers Price Index will be released at 13:30 GMT. This data release is set to slightly impact all the pairs that involve the US Dollar. For example, the EUR/USD could bounce around ten pips on the release.
On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index change will be published at 13:30 GMT. The event is expected to cause around 20 pip reaction on the EUR/USD.
Note that on Wednesday the biggest move that can be caught will occur on the oil price benchmarks. Namely, at 15:30 GMT the US Crude Oil Inventories data release will cause a sudden move of more than one percent.
On Thursday, the attention will be taken by central bank rate announcements. Namely, at 08:30 GMT the Swiss National Bank will publish their rate and at 12:45 the ECB will publish their interest rate.
The last day of the week will have two notable data releases. At 09:00 GMT the European Manufacturing and Services PMI's created by Markit will be published.
Afterwards, the US Retail Sales data sets will be out at 13:30 GMT. The event might cause a 20 pip bounce.
All of the above mentioned data releases will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics. The events can be watched either on the bank's webinar platform or on our YouTube channel.
XAU/USD short term forecast
After reaching above the 1,250.00 level, the yellow metal's price was consolidating its gains and retreated on Monday. Namely, the rate encountered the upper trend line of an ascending pattern and began a retreat.
The decline is expected to reach down to the support of the 1,245.07 level where a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level is located at. As the rate meets this level, the 55-hour simple moving average should approach and provide additional support. Due to that support the surge is expected to resume.
Although, note that the simple moving average might take longer to reach the commodity price than one day.
Hourly Chart
From the daily chart the surge was expected for quite some time. Although, that is not the most important thing to note on the chart.Look at the medium term ascending pattern. It could guide the metal up to the 1,260 levels.
Daily Chart
Traders remain long
The long sentiment on gold had not changed since Friday. Namely, 74% of open positions were long by the middle of the day's trading session.
Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 1000-base point range were set to buy in 59% of cases. It indicated that traders were prepared to buy even more gold in the near future.
In general, holders are still long and short term traders intend to buy more when the retracement downwards is over.