- SWFX market sentiment is 75% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to sell in 52% of cases
- ADP Non-Farm Employment will cause a slight bounce on gold prices
Another attempt to pass the resistance at 1,241.40 was made just as forecast. Although, the pair did not pass the resistance level. Moreover, the currency exchange rate declined in the aftermath of the attempt and fell below the support of the 55-hour simple moving average, indicating that a decline is possible.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 3.6M, compare to forecasted 0.6M.
Below are some key notes from the weekly report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
- "U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.6 million barrels per day during the week ending November 23, 2018. "
- "Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.1 million barrels per day, up by 5.6% from the same period last year. "
Minor impact on gold can be caused by ADP announcement at 13:15 GMT
At 13:15 GMT on Thursday the ADP Non-Farm Employment change will be published and covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's webinar platform and YouTube channel.Moreover, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be published at 16:00 GMT. This data release causes bounced in oil prices from half a dollar up to ninety cents.
The day will end with the head of the Federal Reserve testifying before the US Congress at 23:45 GMT.
Last but not least will be the Friday's monthly US and Canadian employment data release at 13:30 GMT. This event will also be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
XAU/USD short term forecast
During Wednesday's trading session, the yellow metal almost met the monthly R1 at the 1,241.40 level to end the trading session at the 1,237.49 mark. During Thursday's morning hours, the yellow metal passed through the support of the 55-hour simple moving average to trade at the 1,237.00 level.
In regards to the near-term future, the yellow metal will be retraced by the 55-hour simple moving average on Thursday. Moreover, it is expected that the gold could trade sideways to stay at 1,230.00 level during the trading session.
On the other side, during today's US fundamentals, the gold could appreciate against the US Dollar to break the resistance of the monthly R1 at 1,241.40 mark.
Hourly Chart
From the daily chart the surge was expected for quite some time. Although, that is not the most important thing to note on the chart.Look at the medium term ascending pattern. It could guide the metal up to the 1,260 levels once the resistance levels just above the 1,240.00 mark are broken.
Daily Chart
Short term traders reopen long positions
On Wednesday, traders were 72% long on gold, which is comprised of the usual 70% of long term holders and a small portion of short term long traders.
By the middle of Thursday's trading session 75% of open gold positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange were long. It indicated that short term traders had reopened their long positions.
By the middle of Wednesday, 57% of trader set up orders in a 1000-pip range were set to buy. Indicating that traders expect the breaking of resistance levels to reopen long positions.
On Thursday, those orders were executed, as pending orders in the 1000-base point range were balanced 50/50 buy versus sell orders.