- SWFX market sentiment is 72% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to sell in 53% of cases
- Busy macroeconomic data week
Gold continues to surge in an ascending pattern. However, it has encountered the resistance of the pattern and is set to consolidate its gains. After a period of consolidation, it seems that the metal might reach for the long term target of 1,240.00
Latest Fundamental Event
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 3.6M, compare to forecasted 0.6M.
Below are some key notes from the weekly report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
- "U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.6 million barrels per day during the week ending November 23, 2018. "
- "Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.1 million barrels per day, up by 5.6% from the same period last year. "
First week of the month is the busiest for macroeconomic data
It is the first week of the month. Already on Monday morning notable data was published in the UK. Namely, the UK Manufacturing PMI was published at 09:30 GMT.Next up traders will concentrate on the UK Construction PMI on Tuesday at 09:30 GMT. The data release is expected to cause a minor reaction on the GBP/USD pairs.
On Wednesday, the ECB President Draghi might impact the EUR/USD during his speech at 08:30 GMT. In addition the head of the Federal Reserve will testify at 13:15 GMT before the congress. However, these events will note be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
At 13:15 GMT the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be published. This data release will be covered by Dukascopy Anlaytics live on YouTube and Telefision.
Before that, note the UK Services PMI release at 09:30 GMT.
That will not be all on Wednesday. At 15:00 GMT the Bank of Canada will make interest rate announcement. This event has caused the largest fluctuations in the forex markets during 2018. This will be the top event for the month for macroeconomic event traders.
Moreover, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be published at 15:30 GMT. This data release causes bounced in oil prices from half a dollar up to ninety cents.
XAU/USD short term forecast
During Friday's trading session, the yellow metal depreciated to 1216.88 mark breaking most of the technical indicators. During Monday morning hours, the yellow metal was supported by the 55-hour and the 200-hour simple moving averages to surge to the 1,231.10 mark.
In regards to the near-term future, the yellow metal might continue to surge upwards to trade at 1,234.00 level on Monday. Besides, the 55-hour simple moving average will try to catch up the rate during the day.
However, the gold could depreciate to the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1,225.59 mark due to a lack of any support levels near the yellow metal.
Hourly Chart
From the daily chart the retracement downwards was stopped by the strong support cluster at the 1,213.00 mark. At that level the 55 and 100-day simple moving averages were holding ground. In addition, the monthly pivot point was a part of the support cluster.Meanwhile, note that on the daily chart the metal has no technical resistance as high as the 1,245.00 level.
Daily Chart
Long positions remain unchanged
72% of traders were long since Thursday. The traders had previously decreased their large bullish sentiment, as short term traders took profits.
Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 1000-base point range were 54% to buy on Thursday. By the middle of Friday's trading session already 60% of orders were set to buy.
On Monday, the pending buy orders were gone. 53% of trader set up pending orders in the 1000-point range were set to sell.