- SWFX market sentiment is 74% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 55% of cases
- US data incoming at 13:30 on Wednesday
The price of Gold has plummeted down to levels below the 1,215.00 mark. The fundamental crash broke through all of the technical patterns that were drawn by Dukascopy Analytics.
Latest Fundamental Event
Last Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 4.9M, compare to forecasted 2.5M.
On November 21, US President Donald Trump posted on his Twitter account: "Oil prices getting lower. Great! Like a big Tax Cut for America and the World. Enjoy! Thank you to Saudi Arabia, but let's go lower!"
US GDP at 13:30 GMT
This week is the last one of the month. That means that it is bound to be empty in regards to macroeconomic data releases.First notable data release will occur this week on Wednesday. The US Preliminary GDP data will be published at 13:30 GMT. This data release is considered to be the most important among macroeconomic statistics. Although, it causes an increase of volatility around 10 to 20 base points.
On Wednesday, at 15:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories will be published and cause a bounce in oil prices.
On Thursday, the only notable macroeconomic scheduled event, but not a data release, will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 19:00 GMT.
Last, but most important for data release traders, will be the Canadian GDP data release at 13:30 GMT. This event is expected to cause the most volatility that a data release can cause. Although, it will be only observable on Canadian Dollar pairs.
All of these events will be covered live by Dukascopy Analytics. The live coverages will begin ten minutes before the event. They can be watched on the Dukascopy Webinars platform and the YouTube channel.
XAU/USD short term forecast
During Tuesday's trading session, the yellow metal depreciated by 1339 pips or 1.09% to end the trading session at the 1,213.88 mark. During Wednesday morning hours, the gold was trading near the 38.20 % Fibonacci retracement level at the 1,214.48 mark.
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the 38.20 % Fibonacci retracement level at 1,214.55 should resist the yellow metal to trade downwards to reach the 1,210.00 level during the trading day.
On the other side, the yellow metal could appreciate against the US Dollar during today's US Prelim GDP and Crude Oil Inventories data releases to trade at 1,218.00.
Hourly Chart
The commodity price has fallen down to the strong support cluster, which was described previously. The 55 and 100-day simple moving averages together with the monthly pivot point are holding the commodity price from falling further below.Watch that level carefully, as it still might get passed and the rate could decline down to the 1,207.00 level. On the other hand, a surge eventually to the 1,245.00 mark is still expected.
Daily Chart
Traders remain long on gold
On Tuesday, traders had become 75% bullish, which clearly signaled that traders were expecting a reversal.
However, that bullishness decreased by one percent on Wednesday, as 74% of traders were long.
Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 1000-base point range are slightly tilted to the bullish side. Namely, 54% of trader set up pending orders are set to buy gold.