- SWFX market sentiment is 63% bullish
- 77% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to BUY Gold
- Upcoming fundamental events: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims, FOMC Member Quarles to speak
The strengthening of the US Dollar early today has pushed Gold even lower down to 1,222.00.
The Census Bureau released monthly Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 0.5%, compare to forecasted 0.4%.
Pablo Piovano, an Economist from FXStreet, said: "In addition, the NY Empire State manufacturing index came in above expectations at 22.60 for the current month, a tad lower than June's 25.00 reading. Looking ahead, spot is poised to remain under scrutiny in light of headlines from the Trump-Putin meeting and the upcoming testimonies by Fed's J.Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday."
Quiet day
This trading session is allocated to semi-important fundamental releases from the United States, such as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the weekly Unemployment Claims at 1230GMT. In addition, the Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles will deliver opening remarks at the Alternative Reference Rates Committee Roundtable at 1300GMT.
XAU/USD fails to overcome monthly S1
The strong 1% plunge of the XAU/USD exchange rate mid-Tuesday was followed by minor fluctuations in between the monthly S1 and a channel line at 1,320.00 and 1,222.50, respectively. This situation had not changed on Thursday morning, as well.
Technical indicators are generally neutral for this session, but it is likely that the 55-hour SMA continues to pressure Gold lower. The nearest support that could limit this fall is the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement at 1,216.00. These retracement lines were re-drawn today from the 2017/2018 low of 1,122.80, as the previous seven-month low was breached yesterday.
In general, the rate should move towards the upper channel line during the remaining part of this week.
Hourly Chart
Gold has been guided in a descending channel against the US Dollar since mid-April. During these few months, the commodity has depreciated by nearly 10%.
Technical indicators on the daily time-frame are located in the oversold territory. This suggests that the pair's long-term movement should be tended north. The expected target during the following weeks is the breached senior channel and the 200- and 100-day SMAs near 1,300.00.
Daily Chart
Retail traders are riding the surge
63% open positions of SWFX market traders are long. The same situation is apparent with pending orders where bullish requests are growing. This number was standing at 65% mid-day.
The data reveals that although the bullion has retreated, retail traders have even opened new long positions in the expectations of a surge. Most likely, most of the traders see the continuation of a decline as a statistic improbability.
OANDA traders are bullish on the commodity with 83% of open positions being long on the XAU/USD pair today. Saxo Bank traders are likewise bullish with 73% long positions. This shows that industrial traders are considerably bullish on Gold, while retail ones are more cautious on the pair.