However, this is not resulting in a decline of the price for gold, as markets now that the rising inflation signals a potential economic recession, if the Fed is forced to hike too much to stop the rising prices. The markets are turning to the safety of the metal, which continue to reach new all-time-high levels.
On Friday morning, the price hit the resistance of the 2,400.00 mark. The price has been mostly respecting round price levels and the hourly moving averages that follow the metal. Economic Calendar Analysis
Next week, notable data releases start already on Monday. At 12:30 GMT, the US Retail Sales data will be published. Higher than expected retail sales indicate at potential increase in inflation. Retailers could increase prices and cause inflation while consumer demand is strong.
On Thursday, a minor move could occur due to the weekly Unemployment Claims release at 12:30 GMT. More employed people indicate at more consumer demand that also pushes prices higher.
On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT, additional US inflation data will be released. The less noteworthy Producer Price Index will be published.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
A move above 2,400.00 is expected to pause at round price levels that will be revealed to us in the future.
Although, if the metal consolidates its gains by declining, the 2,380.00 is expected to be the first level to act as support. Further below, note the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages and the 2,360.00 level.
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily candle chart, the metal has left the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages far below the current price levels. Moreover, the channel up pattern that has guided this surge has been broken to the upside. Gold appears to be gaining more momentum.Daily Candle Chart
Gold traders wait for decline
On Monday, 72% of Dukascopy traders were short, as that proportion of open position volume was in short positions.
In the meantime, pending orders in the 1000-pip range around the current price were 60% to buy the metal.
Despite the surge continuing, traders are short. On Friday, 74% of open position volume was short. Meanwhile, pending orders were 70% to buy.