USD/JPY is pushed down by hourly SMA

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Monday, the USD/JPY rate was being pushed down by the resistance of the 55-hour SMA near 106.90.

Future scenarios were built on assumptions of the SMA being either broken or holding.

US Employment Data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the US Unemployment Rate data, which came out better-than-expected of 3.5% compared with the forecast of 3.7%.

According to the official release: "In September, the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.5 percent. The last time the rate was this low was in December 1969, when it also was 3.5 percent. Over the month, the number of unemployed persons decreased by 275,000 to 5.8 million."



Economic Calendar

On Tuesday the US PPI release at 12:30 GMT could cause a move. Although, it usually causes a move below ten pips, which is considered insignificant.

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes are set to be published at 18:00 GMT. Since February the event has caused moves from 7.7 to 15.3 base points.

On Thursday, the US CPI will be released at 12:30 GMT. The event has caused moves from 12.1 to 28.4 pips since May.

Meanwhile, next week's notable event overview and historical data tables have been published. Click on the link below to see the article with the data.

USD/JPY short-term daily review

During Monday's Asian trading session, the USD/JPY tested the resistance of the 55-hour simple moving average, which had held the rate down since Friday.

In general, if the SMA succeeds at pushing the pair down, it would once ore test the support of the 106.60. The 106.60 level stopped the pair's sharp decline and kept it up since Thursday.

On the other hand, a breaking of the resistance of the 55-hour SMA would result in the USD/JPY testing the resistance of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at 107.00.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the channel up pattern has been broken. The rate has clearly went away from it and the surge that was going one since late September is over.

Meanwhile, take into account that the 55-day simple moving average was also pierced, indicating that is not likely to impact the currency exchange rate in the near term future.

Daily chart



More long position volume

Since Thursday, 57% of open USD/JPY position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in long positions.

The long proportion increased on Monday, as 62% of position volume was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up orders were neutral. Namely, in the 100-pip range 53% of pending orders were set to sell and 47% were to buy.

Previously, 51% of orders were to buy.

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