GBP/USD signals a decline

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • The Swiss market is 62% bullish on the pair
  • Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 55% set to sell
  • US Durable Goods Orders release at 13:30 GMT

On Wednesday morning the GBP/USD traded still near the 1.2800 level. Although, it was expected from a technical analysis perspective that the rate will decline down to the 1.2700 mark.

Latest Fundamental Event

The British Pound depreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK Retail Sales data released on Thursday at 09:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate lost 16 pips or 0.13% during a minute, right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.2810 area against the US Dollar.

The Office for National Statistics released UK Retail Sales data that came out lower than expected of negative 0.5%, compare to forecasted positive 0.2%.

The Office for National Statistics noted, "In the three months to October 2018, the quantity bought in retail sales increased by 0.4% when compared with the previous three months; a slowdown to growth when compared with the strong summer sales, which reached a high of 2.3% in the three months to July".

Live Cover: UK Retail Sales

US Durable Goods orders at 13:30 GMT are in focus

On Wednesday, the US statisticians will publish the US Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data sets at 13:30 GMT.

In addition, at 15:30 GMT the US Crude Oil inventories data release will be published.

Meanwhile, note that the second notable fundamental data release day of the week will be Friday. At 13:30 GMT the Canadian CPI and Core Retail Sales data will be published.

All of these data releases can be watched live on the Dukascopy Webinar platform and the Dukascopy Webinars YouTube channel. Join ten minutes before the event to see the cover.
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GBP/USD short term review

In regards to the near-term future, in all likelihood, the British Pound will keep trading sideways to stay at the 1.2750 level during the trading session. Besides, the 55-hour and the 200-hour simple moving averages will resist the rate during the session.

On the other side, the British Pound could break the resistance of the simple moving averages to take its support to surge to the 1.2850 level.

Hourly Chart


From the daily chart's perspective, the GBP/USD is set to reach for the 1.2685 mark where the weekly S1 is located at.

Daily chart

Traders remain long on GBP/USD

On Wednesday, 62% of all open GBP/USD positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange were long.

Pending orders in the 100-base point range are set to sell the pair, as 62% of the orders in the range are set to sell.

Most likely, traders remained still long in the expectations of a retracement after the large decline that occurred last week. Meanwhile, note that the traders are not prepared to open additional long positions. Instead sell orders are set up close by to sell the GBP.

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