Currently, the exchange rate is trading near the lower boundary of an ascending channel pattern and could be set for a breakout.
Economic Calendar Analysis
At 12:30 GMT on Thursday, the US Preliminary GDP is set to be published. This event has caused EUR/USD moves from 6.3 to 15.1 pips. Note that in most cases the rate has moved below ten pips, which is in the range of normal volatility. Namely, the event has not caused actual moves.
Also on Thursday, the weekly US Unemployment Claims are set to be published at 12:30 GMT. Our analysts have been ignoring this event since February, as it did not have an impact on the USD. This week, another check of the data was done.
The event supposedly caused a notable move on May 13, when the EUR/USD moved 19.4 pips in the span of ten minutes. However, that was due to three data sets being released at the same time. Namely, the US PPI and Core PPI showed better than expected results and combined with the Unemployment Claims caused an increase of volatility.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
If the breakout occurs, a decline towards the weekly support level at 1.2124 could be expected within this session.However, if the channel pattern holds, bullish traders might aim at the 1.2240 area today.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, the rate has reached the February high just below the 1.2250 level. If this level gets passed, the 2021 high near 1.2350 could be targeted.In the meantime, the rate remains in a channel up pattern, which has guided the rate up since the start of April.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders remain short
On Monday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were short, as 65% of open position volume was in short positions.
On Friday, 66% of volume was short.
On Monday, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 51% to buy the pair.