By the middle of Thursday's European trading hours, the currency exchange rate had recovered. Moreover, it was expected to retrace to the resistance cluster that is located from 1.2085 to 1.2103.
Economic Calendar Analysis
On Thursday, market participants are set to watch the weekly US Unemployment Claims at 13:30 GMT. However, this event has not caused any volatility since January 21, when a 16.4 pip move occurred.
Friday will be the day that the Markit Purchasing Managers Indices are published. These survey results reveal what various sector purchasing managers are thinking about the future outlook of their respective sectors. In general, the markets look at the results of the services and manufacturing sectors.
Note that the European PMIs are chopped up. Namely, the surveys are done for various countries and the results are published at different times. This fact spreads out the impact.
The French PMIs are scheduled to be released at 08:15 GMT and could cause an initial move of 9.0 to 20.3 pips. The German survey results will be out at 08:30 GMT and they have created moves from 10.4 to 41.5 pips since September. At 09:00 GMT, the European releases will end with the combined Euro Zone results that could cause an additional move from 7.0 to 13.0 pips.
In addition, take into account that survey data from various countries can show various sentiment. Namely, the French could be pessimistic and cause a drop of the EUR and, afterwards, good results from Germany could create a surge of the European common currency.
The week will end for the EUR/USD with the US PMIs at 14:45 GMT. The release could cause a move from 7.8 to 26.4 pips.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
In the near term future, the pair was expected to reach for the resistance of the 55, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages and the weekly simple pivot point in the range from 1.2085 to 1.2103 levels.The resistance cluster is most likely going to provide resistance and push the rate down. In this case scenario expect the rate to once again make an attempt to pass the 1.2020/1.2025 levels.
However, in the case of the SMAs and the weekly simple pivot point failing, the rate could reach back up first to the resistance of the 1.2140 mark and afterwards the resistance zone from 1.2170 to 1.2180.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, it appears that the Tuesday's breaking of the 2021 channel down pattern was a fake break-out or a "piercing" of the pattern. However, it still signals that the pattern could be broken.
In the case of the rate properly breaking out of the pattern, it could test the late January high level at 1.2200. This level caused the rate's January 20/February 5 decline.
Meanwhile, take into account that there is additional support on the daily candle chart at the 1.2000 mark. Namely, a 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day simple moving average were strengthening this level.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders are neutral
On Thursday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were neutral, as 51% of open position volume was in long positions.
The sentiment has gradually went to the bullish side since being 55% short on Monday.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 57% to buy the pair.
The orders were 67% to buy on Wednesday.