EUR/USD ends recovery

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The EUR/USD recovery found resistance in the 1.1640 level on Monday. Afterwards, a decline began, which during the Tuesday morning hours had reached below the support of the 100 and 55-hour simple moving averages.

Moreover, the pair had reached below the 1.1600 mark.

Economic Calendar Analysis



On Tuesday, the US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 GMT could impact the value of the US Dollar and all USD currency exchange rates. The event has moved the EUR/USD from 5.9 to 32.2 base points since May 2021.

On Wednesday, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:15 GMT might cause USD volatility. The pair has moved from 9.8 up to 15.0 pips on the release since May 2021.

On Thursday, the weekly US Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT might cause a minor move in the USD. The EUR/USD has moved from 5.4 to 13.5 pips on the releases that occurred in September.

On Friday, at 12:30 GMT, the US employment data sets will be out. Namely, the Average Hourly Earnings change, the Non-Farm Employment Change and the monthly Unemployment Rate are bound to impact the value of the US Dollar.

The pair has reacted to the US employment data since May 2021 with moves from 26.9 to 75.1 base points.

Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

If the pair continues to decline, it would do so due to the resistance of the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages near 1.1600. A potential decline would look for support in the September 30 low level zone at 1.1562/1.1569. Below this zone, the 1.1500 mark could act as support.

On the other hand, a failure of the simple moving averages to provide resistance might result in the pair reaching the weekly simple pivot point at 1.1631 and the 1.1640 mark. Above these levels, the 200-hour SMA is capable of providing resistance near 1.1650.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, EUR/USD has passed the 2020 September and November low level at 1.1600. The rate has not been so low for more than a year. The last time the EUR/USD was below 1.1600 was in July 2020.

In the case of the larger scale decline continuing, the pair could find support in the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1450. On the other hand, the pair is oversold, a potential recovery could find resistance in both the 1.1600 and 1.1700 levels.

Daily chart




Long sentiment decreases

On Friday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were bullish, as 67% of open position volume was in long positions.

On Monday morning, the sentiment was 63% long. By the middle of Tuesday, the sentiment was 57% long.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 52% to buy the currency exchange rate.

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