- SWFX market sentiment was 53% short during the morning hours
- 54% of pending orders in the 100-pip are to SELL
- Calendar webinar at 12:00 GMT
Even though the Friday's trading session ended at a strong resistance, the rate passed it by opening a lot higher on Monday. However, by the middle of Monday's trading session the currency exchange rate had retreated back down to the 109.40 mark.
The Census Bureau released two data sets simultaneously, where Residential Building Permits for the month of April came out in line with a forecast of 1.35M, moreover, the same number was released in the previous period.
The US Dollar's slight weakening may be affected due to the lower-than-expected Housing Starts data of 1.29M, compared to the forecast of 1.32M.
No data on Monday
As it is accustomed to by macroeconomic data release traders, Monday's trading session will have no notable data releases occurring.
However, tune in at 12:00 GMT to the Dukascopy webinar platform to see the presentation of this week's macroeconomic data releases and the creation of the coverage schedule.
USD/JPY bearish this week
The US Dollar was trading sideways against the Japanese Yen on Friday. Despite breaching a four-day channel down later on the day, the pair failed to accelerate, as it was restricted by the 55-hour SMA. This moving average surrendered later in the day, but no further advances followed.It is likely that the rate appreciates during the first part of Monday towards the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 110.00. Taking into account that banks in the US are closed today, this level is unlikely to be breached, especially now when the pair is stranded between the 100– and 200-period SMAs on the four-hour chart.
Technical indicators on the daily time-frame favour a decline in price this week. The ultimate downside target should be the 100– and 55-day SMAs and the monthly PP at 108.20.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart it can be spotted that the 109.00 mark played a significant role in stopping the currency rate's decline. However, there are other notable levels if significance at play.
Namely, the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at the 109.14 mark was providing support. Meanwhile, the weekly PP at 109.92 was providing resistance to the US Dollar against the Yen.
Moreover, on Monday Dukascopy Analysts charted a possible medium size ascending channel pattern. If the rate moves to confirm its lower trend line, the 108.40 area would be targeted next.
Daily chart
SWFX traders remain bearish on the USD/JPY pair, as 53% of open positions were short. Compared to the previous 54%, the new data indicates that the weekend has created almost no changes.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders are bullish with 53% of them being set to buy the Greenback. Previously, 56% of orders were to buy. This indicates that during the recent surge, some of the take profits of the shorts or opening of new long positions has occurred.
The market sentiment of OANDA traders have increased their bullish sentiment, as 59% of them holding long positions. On Wednesday the percentage was at 56%. In addition, the number of long positions of Saxo bank traders is 55%.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility