- SWFX market sentiment is 65% bullish
- 71% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: Euro zone's Final CPI, ECB President Draghi and FOMC Member Bostic to speak, US Housing Starts, US Capacity Utilisation Rate, US Industrial Production m/m, US Mortgage Delinquencies
EUR/USD flashes mixed signals in this session.
The Greenback strengthened against the Eurozone's single currency, following controversial US Retail Sales data release on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 17 pips, or 0.15%, and continued to go downwards, thus strengthening US dollar even more.
The Census Bureau released two datasets simultaneously, where Advance Retail Sales for the month of April came out lower-than-expected of 0.3%, compared to 0.6% in the previous period. Moreover, Core Retail Sales too came out to be short of expectations of 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in the previous month.
"Looking ahead, the consumer faces the added burden of higher gasoline prices," said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.
US Building Permits
Wednesday's trading session will start with Euro zone's Consumer Price Index for April at 0900GMT. In addition, the President of the European Central bank Mari Draghi will deliver opening remarks at an ECB event held in Frankfurt at 1200GMT.
The US Census Bureau is set to release monthly Building Permits and Housing Starts at 1230GMT. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is likewise to speak at the same time about the economic outlook at the Augusta Cotton Exchange.
Some other data from the US are to be published later in the day, such as the Capacity Utilisation Rate and the Industrial Production at 1315GMT and the Mortgage Delinquencies at 1400GMT.
EUR/USD could still approach 2018 low
It is likely that the pair still edges lower in this session, possibly down to the weekly S2 at 1.1760; however, the aforementioned yearly low should not be surpassed.
By and large, the rate's movement should nevertheless be tended northwards during the following week. In case this bullish reversal occurs today, the pair should remain below the 1.19 mark, as it is guarded by all three SMAs.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency continues to fall against the US Dollar for the third consecutive week. This massive decline has sent daily technical indicators in the strongly oversold territory.
This decline of the Euro has continued down to a 2018 low of 1.1850. The rate reversed near the monthly S1 at 1.1825 on Wednesday, but nevertheless remains pressured by the 200-day SMA near 1.20. Thus, it is likely that the Euro hinders near this area for several sessions prior to resuming its general movement north.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 65% of open positions being long.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 58% bullish and the US Dollar is 62% bearish.
OANDA traders have strengthened their sentiment by one percentage point to 53% long positions. Meanwhile, the market sentiment of Saxo Bank is currently standing at equilibrium, compared to 53% of open positions being short on Tuesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility