- SWFX market sentiment is 66% bullish (+1%)
- 68% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: Euro zone's CPI Flash Estimate y/y and Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, US Preliminary Nonfarm productivity q/q, US Preliminary Unit Labour Costs q/q, US Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
The common European currency has not still gathered the necessary momentum to breach the 55-hour SMA.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data release on Wednesday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained two pips, or 0.01%, however reversed later on and continued to go downwards, thus strengthening US dollar.
The Automatic Data Processing Inc. released better-than-expected Non-Farm Employment Change data of 204K for the month of April. The data exceeded forecasts for the fifth consecutive month.
"The labor market continues to maintain a steady pace of strong job growth with little sign of a slowdown," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Thursday's trading session includes one important data release, that is, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to be published at 1400GMT.
Meanwhile, some data releases of intermediate importance are likewise included in today's calendar. The Eurostat is set to publish the CPI Flash Estimate and the Core CPI Flash Estimate for the Euro zone at 0900GMT. The US Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labour Costs, as well as the weekly US Unemployment Claims come out at 1230GMT.
EUR/USD reaches 2018 low
The common European currency still continues to weaken against the US Dollar for the second week.The first part of Wednesday's trading session showed some signs of recovery due to allayed bearish pressure; however, the bulls were not strong enough to overcome the weekly S1, the 55-hour SMA and the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement near 1.2020. This cluster sent the pair even lower down to 1.1960 where a six-month resistance/support level and the 2018 low is located.
It is likely that the pair tries to re-test the aforementioned resistance area; this, however, will not be an easy task, as the 100-hour SMA is likewise situated nearby at 1.2050. Thus, no massive changes are expected to occur in the market today. The daily low is likely to be the monthly S2 at 1.1925 or the psychological 1.1900 mark.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency continues to fall against the US Dollar for the second consecutive week. This massive decline has sent daily technical indicators in the strongly oversold territory. Thus, it is likely that the pair reverses near the monthly S1 and the 200-day SMA and tries to re-approach the 1.22 area where the monthly PP and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement are located.
Daily Chart
Bulls grow stronger
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 66% of open positions being long (+1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 51% bullish and the US Dollar is 61% bearish.
The market sentiment of OANDA remains at the same level today, as 51% of its traders are holding short positions. Saxo Bank clients are also bearish with 55% of open positions being short.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility