- SWFX market sentiment is 51% bullish
- 51% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Likely downside target at 1.2280
- Important for today: US PPI m/m, US Core PPI m/m
The pair is expected to respect a two-week channel and edge lower.
The Eurozone's single currency weakened against the Greenback, following the UK non-farm employment change data on Friday. The EUR/USD currency pair skyrocketed 24 pips or 0.19%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2272 area.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed much lower-than-expected data in non-farm employment change in March. However, there was an employment growth of 103K, it decreased more than three times from 326K in the prior month. Without non-farm employment change there were two more data sets that came out simultaneously. Average hourly earnings stayed in line with the forecast; however, unemployment rate came out to be 4.1%, which was 0.1% more than expected.
US Producer Price Index
The only set of fundamental data releases to be taken into account in this session is the US Producer Price Index and its core readings to be published at 1230GMT. Analysts forecast that the index grew 0.1% in March, compared to a 0.2% increase in February.
EUR/USD respects prevailing patterns
The common European currency has been steadily appreciating against the US Dollar for the third consecutive session. This movement has been confined in two opposing channels.Except for a 56-pip surge, the equal force of bulls and bears maintained the rate steady on Tuesday. The Asian session did not introduce massive changes, as the Euro remained lingering slightly below the upper boundary of the senior channel and the monthly PP at 1.2320.
It is likely that the bearish sentiment guides the pair today. Even if the senior channel is not respected, a move above 1.2360 is unlikely. Instead, the pair should approach a support cluster set by the 55–, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP at 1.2280. This level is expected to hold in case the US PPI at 1230GMT does not change this assumption.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency managed to breach the 55-day SMA and the prevailing senior channel late in March. This factor together with bearish technical indicators add some ground to the assumption that the pair is likely to edge lower during this week.
The nearest support cluster is set by the monthly S1, the weekly S2, the 100-hour SMA and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement near 1.2150.
Daily Chart
Sentiment more neutral
The SWFX market sentiment for EUR/USD has turned bullish with 51% of open positions being long.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 57% bearish and the US Dollar is 51% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders stands at 53% (-1%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 59% of open positions being short (remains unchanged).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility