- Traders are bearish with 52% short positions (-2%)
- 59% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upside potential up to 1.2350
- Important for today: ISM Manufacturing PMI; Bank Holiday in Germany, France and Italy
The pair remains stranded between the senior channel and the combined resistance of the 100- and 200-hour moving averages.
The European single currency slightly dropped against the Greenback, following the French prelim consumer price index data release on Friday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost three pips, or 0.03%, in the first minute after the release, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2320 area.
The INSEE revealed better-than-expected French prelim CPI monthly data for the period of March. Consumer price index grew substantially, compared to neutral 0.0% index data in the previous period. However, that was not enough to cause a significant move on the market. With Easter approaching even closer, the EUR/USD pair is left with thin macro data and low volumes.
US Manufacturing PMI, Bank Holidays
The only important fundamental event scheduled for this session is the US Manufacturing PMI published by the Institute for Supply Management at 1400GMT. Analysts forecast a slight contraction to 60.1 in March, compared to 60.8 during the previous month.
Meanwhile, banks in Germany, France and Italy are closed due to Easter Monday.
EUR/USD moves along 55-hour SMA
The Euro remained steady against the Greenback on Good Friday, as it squeezed between the 200-hour SMA and the senior channel. The pair managed to break above the 55-hour moving average mid-day, but had remained trading along this line by Monday morning.Given that the pair is likewise supported by the monthly PP and the senior channel, it is likely that the Euro tries to gain some advantage against its American counterpart in this session. Upside potential, however, is limited due to the combined resistance of the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, the weekly PP and the 23.60% Fibo. Thus, the pair is likely to continue moving in between these barriers with a slight tendency northwards.
Some volatility could be introduced by the ISM Manufacturing PMI published at 1400GMT.
Hourly Chart
EUR/JPY has been trading sideways since early March, as the strong support of the 55-day SMA has not allowed the pair to move below the 1.22 mark.
The Euro might still push slightly higher towards the weekly R1 and the upper boundary of the junior channel this week. However, the general direction should nevertheless remain south to eventually breach the senior channel and test the 100-day SMA and the monthly S1 at 1.2130.
Daily Chart
Sentiment strongly bearish
The SWFX market sentiment for the EUR/USD exchange rate is 52% bearish (-2%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 59% bearish and the US Dollar is 53% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders has increased to 56% of short positions today (+2%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 58% of open positions being short (+1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility