- Traders are bearish with 58% short positions (+1%)
- 58% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Significant resistance near 1.2360
- Upcoming events: US CPI m/m, US Core CPI m/m
The Greenback fluctuated based on the releases of the controversial reports from Bureau of Labour Statistics on Friday. The EUR/USD currency pair rose by 16 pips in the first 5 minutes, however the trend reversed right after, causing the pair to tumble almost twice as much.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics simultaneously released 3 reports on Friday: average hourly earnings, non-farm employment change and unemployment rate, from which only the first 2 had a notable impact on the exchange rate. The up-move in the EUR/USD currency pair was caused by lower-than-expected average hourly earnings data, while the downtick was driven by better-than-expected non-farm employment change figures.
US inflation data
The only set of important economic data that is likely to affect the market in this session is the US CPI and Core CPI for the month of February released at 1230GMT. The previous reading for the Consumer Price Index was a 0.5% increase, while the current forecast is a more moderate 0.2% growth month-on-month.
EUR/USD finds support
The Euro was fluctuating in the 1.2343/1.2260 range on Tuesday, thus continuing its general movement sideways which began following weak US employment data last Friday.The first part of today is likely to remain quiet, as traders are awaiting US inflation report released at 1230GMT. Thus, the Euro could trade in a narrow range between the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs during this time. Resistance is likewise reinforced by the weekly PP.
A breakout is likely to determine the pair's subsequent direction until Wednesday morning. In case 1.2360 surrenders, the Euro should try pushing for the 1.24 area. Conversely, the prevalence of the bearish sentiment could result in a test of the 1.2250 territory where the weekly S1, the 38.20% Fibo retracement and the senior channel are located.
Hourly Chart
The Euro retraced from the breached channel last week and has since edged slightly lower. It is likely that the pair continues its medium-term down-trend and approaches the bottom boundary of the senior channel circa 1.22 during the following trading sessions.
Daily Chart
Traders are bearish
The number of short positions of EUR/USD is 58% in this session (+1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 63% bearish and the US Dollar is 56% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders has increased to 60% short positions today. Meanwhile, Saxo Bank clients hold 61% short positions for the second consecutive day.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility