- SWFX market sentiment is 56% bearish (+3%)
- 53% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Recent fundamental events have dominated the rate
- Upcoming events: Nothing on Friday
The ISM Manufacturing PMI release presented a stronger-than-anticipated data, causing a further Dollar strengthening and a subsequent down move in the EUR/USD exchange rate. The pair declined 10 base points, or 0.08%, reaching the 1.2163 level.
The ISM stated that the US Manufacturing PMI increased from 59.1 in January to 60.8 in February, representing the highest mark since May 2004.
The US manufacturing activity strengthened in the reported month mainly due to expending exports that are showing their highest growth rate since April 2011. In fact, growing employment rate also was one of the factors driving the overall expansion in the domestic manufacturing sector.
The week has ended
The economic calendars on Friday have nothing notable on them. Due to that reason swing traders are set to start watching next week's calendar and plan their week accordingly.
Regarding the next week. Be sure to watch the various rate announcements at the middle of the week. For example the most notable will be the ECB rate announcement and the following press conference.
Meanwhile, US labour data will be released with the ADP payrolls on Wednesday and official data on Friday. These data releases will be covered by the Dukascopy research team on the bank's live webinar platform.
EUR/USD makes another fundamental move
The picture on the EUR/USD charts is a complicated mix of technical levels and fundamental events causing various moves. This combination has resulted in a rather high volatility to the upside in the last 24 hours.In general, the pair bounced off the support of the speculative long term channel, which was strengthened by a weekly pivot point near the 1.2150 mark.
The event coincided with the sudden announcement that Donald Trump will impose tariffs on metal imports. That caused a sudden increase in volatility.
The volatile trading broke various resistance levels until the surge paused on Friday morning near the 200-hour SMA.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart has been acting as expected. Namely the 55-day SMA together with the weekly S2 provided the needed support for the EUR/USD to rebound,
Meanwhile, that level can be used to adjust the long term chart. By doing that one can understand, where the future support and resistance levels for the daily will be located at.
However, the medium term trend is still a mystery. Most likely it will be spotted during the first part of the next week.
Daily Chart
Traders are bearish
The number of short positions of the EUR/USD exchange rate is 56% in this session (+3%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 62% bearish and the US Dollar is 55% bullish.
OANDA traders remain 57% bearish, which is the same as on Thursday. The bearish sentiment of Saxo Bank clients stands at 58% short positions (+2%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility