- SWFX market sentiment is 54% bearish
- 58% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- 50% of traders are bearish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: Quiet Monday
The common European currency is continuing to grow against the Dollar in large ascending channel. Nevertheless, a resistance set up by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level is likely to stop this surge and lead to another round of the buck's strengthening.
The EUR/USD exchange rate continued to increase on the US JOLTS report on Monday. The release caused 20% volatility in the pair, where the Euro lost 3 base points against the US Dollar, but kept recovering in an attempt to enter the 1.1600 area again. The bullish sentiment was fuelled additionally by the Fed's Yellen speech in the evening.
The JOLTS report showed that demand for workers in the US remained solid, with 6.1M job openings registered in September. The job opening rate, as well as pace of hiring were unchanged at 4% and 3.6%, respectively. Despite the recent hurricanes' fallout, levels were steady, indicating the resilient labour market. However, nearly 1.7M people were laid off or fired in September, compared with 1.5M a year ago.
Another silent Monday
There are no macroeconomic data releases planned for today that might affect valuation of the given currency pair.
EUR/USD starts new week near 1.1660
Despite a positive perception of ideas expressed by the US President Donald Trump at the ASEAN summit the Dollar is continuing to lose value against the Euro in a one-week long ascending channel. Although the pattern is supported by the rising 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs, the upcoming rebound from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1679 is likely to lead to breakout to the south. This assumption is additionally backed up by the average market sentiment, which is 63% bearish. Moreover, there is a need to take into account that today there are scheduled no fundamental events that might give the pair an impulse strong enough to bypass the above resistance, which has been managing to turnaround the rate for the last two weeks.
Hourly Chart
Over the last three days the currency rate has been climbing to the top. On Friday, it reached the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1679. Hence, in the upcoming week the pair is likely move in the opposite direction, back to the 1.1580 level. However, this scenario might be substantially altered due release of inflation and retail sales data.
Daily Chart
Traders stay neutrally bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment slightly increased, as 54% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 61% bearish and the Dollar is 50% bearish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 63% (+1%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are neutrally bearish on this currency pair with 56% (+1%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility