- SWFX market sentiment is 53% bearish
- 50% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 52% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Due to favourable fundamental background, the currency pair made a rebound slipped through the 100% Fibonacci retracement level again. Such bearish movement confirmed that that the pair still remains under control of a one-month-long downtrend. However, there is a need to take into account that from larger perspective it is trading in a falling wedge pattern, which is expected to be broken in the nearest future.
The US Dollar strengthened against the Euro in the wake of US data release on Wednesday. The EUR/USD currency pair fell 0.15% or 17 pips to continue the session below the 1.1770 level, additionally confirming the position amid the better-than-expected ISM report and a small reaction on EU and US officials' speeches.
The US companies slashed hiring to the lowest level in 11 months in September owing to the disruption of business activities caused by Hurricanes Irma and Harvey, according to the ADP Employment report. The private survey showed that the country's businesses added 135K jobs in September, suggesting the most of Hurricane's impact forced small retailers to cut hiring.
US employment data release
The end of the first week in a new month will be traditionally closed by a release of information about the American labour market. In particular, at 12:30 GMT the Bureau of Labour Statistics will simultaneously publish an update on the Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate. Accordingly, this event is expected to cause certain volatility in the markets.
EUR/USD rebounds from 200-hour SMA
In result of the previous trading session, the currency exchange rate made a rebound from a combined resistance set up by the 200-hour SMA and the upper edge of a junior descending channel. In addition to that, the pair managed to break through the 100% Fibonacci retracement level and the weekly S1 again. On the one hand, this plunge shows that movement of the rate is still guided by a downtrend formed approximately a month ago. On the other hand, a daily chart indicates that the pair is about to reach the lower support line of a dominant falling wedge pattern. There is a need to take into account that this boundary is additionally secured by the monthly S1 at 1.15658 plus the pair is moving within the long-term uptrend. Hence, the further surge is likely to follow.
Hourly Chart
A rebound in the previous trading session confirmed that the pair is not simply moving in a one-month-long descending channel, but rather in a falling wedge. Theoretically, the pair leaves such type of patterns to the top. In this case, the fact that the lower support line of the wedge is additionally supported by the monthly S1 at 1.1658 suggests on a breakout to the top as well. In addition to that, there is also a need to keep in mind that the Euro is surging against the Dollar in a long-term, general uptrend.
Daily Chart
Traders become neutral
In result of the previous trading session the bullish market sentiment did not change, as 53% of open positions remained long.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 57% bearish and the Dollar is 52% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 61% (-1%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are also bearish on this currency pair with 56% (-3%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility