- SWFX market sentiment is 63% bearish (+1%)
- 51% of pending orders in a 100-pip range are to BUY
- Downside potential until 112.55
- Upcoming events: US Unemployment Claims, US Trade Balance, US Factory Orders m/m, FOMC Members Powell and Harker to speak, Japan's Leading Indicators
The US companies slashed hiring to the lowest level in 11 months in September owing to the disruption of business activities caused by Hurricanes Irma and Harvey, according to the ADP Employment report.
The private survey showed that the country's businesses added 135K jobs in September, suggesting the most of Hurricane's impact forced small retailers to cut hiring.
Active day for trading on US fundamentals
The main fundamental events are to occur during the second half of this trading session. The US will publish weekly Unemployment Claims and monthly Trade Balance at 1230GMT. There is another set of data planned for this session, namely the US Factory Orders at 1400GMT.
The rest of fundamental events are speeches by central bankers from the US. The Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell and the President of the Federal Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker are to speak at 1310GMT and 1400GMT, respectively.
USD/JPY surges amid US fundamentals
In line with expectations, the currency rate reached and made a successful rebound from the bottom trend-line of a senior ascending channel.Fortunately for the buck, this technical moment matched with release of information on the US non-manufacturing activity. However, the surge did not last for long, as it was quickly stopped by a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Such outcome suggests that today bears are going to try to restore lost positions and push the pair back to the bottom at least until the 200-hour SMA, which is located near the 112.55 level.
The fact that the dominant channel already consists of five confirmation points implies that a breakout is likely to happen in the nearest future. This assumption looks even more probable amid the pair's failure the surge above the 113.20 level.
Hourly chart
USD/JPY has lost its momentum during the past three trading sessions, thus demonstrating the equal strength of both bulls and bears. These relatively flat candles might also confirm the assumption that the Greenback could begin a new wave down. The nearest resistance is formed by the upper wedge boundary circa 112.80, while support is provided by the weekly PP at 112.42.
Daily chart`
The bearish market sentiment has increased on Thursday, as the number of traders holding short positions is at 63% (+1%). In addition, 51% of pending orders are to sell the US Dollar.
OANDA clients are bullish on the pair, with 53% of open positions being long in this session (+1%). In addition, 53% of Saxo Bank traders are also holding long positions (unchanged from Wednesday).