In the meantime, the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages are significantly higher than the current currency pair rate, thus creating a higher probability scenario of a reversal if there would be market parameters that would allow such condition.
Economic Calendar Analysis
On Monday, the publication of the Manufacturing and Services sector Purchasing Managers Indices could cause an adjustment in currencies.
As well ISM Services PMI on 4th of the December would have the possibility of significant impact on the currency pair price impact.
On Friday December 6th market would receive information regarding Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate.
EUR/USD hourly chart analysis
The ongoing decrease the FX rate can continue if current market trend suggests no significant changes of the demand of the dollar in upcoming weeks.On the other hand, a decline might first find support in the combination of the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages near 1.0550. If the moving averages fail, the 1.0500/1.0520 range is almost certainly going to keep the pair up. If the 1.0500 fails, the 1.0450 level and the weekly S1 simple pivot point could slow down the EUR/USD, before it reaches the 1.0400 mark.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, the rate is through the 1.0635/1.0700 range and the 1.0600 mark. It has left the daily simple moving averages far above it, indicating that the rate is technically oversold. However, due to the fundamental changes going on in the USA, the oversold conditions have minor impact.The ongoing decline could find support in the late 2023 low levels at 1.0450. If this levels fail, the pair will look for support in the 1.0350/1.0400 range. This range marks the 2017 low levels. In 2022 the range acted both as support and resistance.
Meanwhile, a potential recovery will face the 1.0600 level and the 1.0635/1.0700 zone.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders stick to long positions
Before the US elections, traders were 58% in bullish positions. Traders were expecting a recovery of the pair.
On November 11, traders had added to the long positions, as 73% of volume was in long positions.
In the meantime, pending orders were neutral, as just 51% of pending orders were to buy.
This week, on December second, traders had added to the long positions, as 73% were already long,23% short . Everyone appears to be expecting a retracement back up.
In addition, more positions could be opened, as 44% of orders were to buy.