As a result of the Dollar's surge, the price for gold has retreated below the 2,060.00 level. Meanwhile, it has been spotted that traders went increasingly short on Thursday and have caught the decline. Economic Calendar Analysis
At the start of 2024, notable events start on Wednesday. At 15:00 GMT, watch the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index survey results and the JOLTS Job Openings number. Note that the two releases could cause a major impact, if both shows either better or worse than expected data.
On the same day, some impact could be created by the publication of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes publication. The Meeting Minutes are a protocol of the US monetary policy maker's last meeting. It can reveal additional information on future US base interest rate policy.
On Thursday, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is capable of impacting the markets. The Automatic Data Processing released number usually is a good indicator of what the US government data will show, as it occurs prior to the official publication of employment numbers. The event is scheduled for 13:15 GMT.
On Friday, the US monthly employment data sets will be published. The event is scheduled for 13:30 GMT.
They are bound to impact the financial markets via the value of the US Dollar. Namely, good data reveals that inflation might return and the Fed would have to keep rates high or even cut. This would cause a surge of the Dollar. On the other hand, bad data would weaken the USD, as the Fed can cut rates.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
An extension of the ongoing decline is expected to find support in the 2,050.00 mark and the 200-hour simple moving average. Below 2,050.00, the 2,040.00 level and the 2,044.75/1,047.75 and 2,027.15/2,030.00 ranges are capable of acting as support.
However, a recovery of the metal is expected to face the 100-hour simple moving average together with the 2,068.50/2,070.50 range. Higher above, the 2,075.00 level and the 50-hour simple moving average could slow down a surge, before the 2,084.35/2,088.30 zone is reached.
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily candle chart, the 2021 and 2022 high level range at 2,065.30/2,082.80 appears to have failed to keep the price down. If it turns into support, the metal is set to approach the all-time high levels near 2,150.00.Daily Candle Chart
Gold traders are short
On Wednesday, 61% were short, as that proportion of open position volume was in short positions.
In the meantime, pending orders in the 1000-pip range around the current price were 56% to buy the metal.
On Thursday, positions were 66% short and orders were 55% to buy. A shift in positions of 5% is a lot for gold. It appears that a massive majority expect the metal to fail to pass above 2,100.00.
During the last day of trading, 66% were short and pending orders were 64% to sell.