The EUR/USD has surged as expected. Moreover, the currency exchange rate has surged above the initial target, and instead of just reaching the 1.1250 level, the pair has touched 1.1275.
Although, after reaching the high level, the rate retreated and began to trade sideways in the range between 1.1255 and 1.1270.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the US Employment data set release on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange rate gained 18 pips or 0.16% right after the release. The Euro continued trading at the 1.1230 level against the US Dollar.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the US Non-Farm Employment Change, which came better-than-expected of 196K compared with forecasted 172K. Note, that the US Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate were released at the same time.
On March, the US economy generated more jobs than expected, and the confidence in the state of labor market strengthened. Also, the slowdown in wage inflation supported the Fed's resolution to lessen further policy tightening.
Most data releases are on Wednesday
This week data releases are set to start on Wednesday. On that day the calendar is full of events that have impacted various currencies in the past.During the morning hours of the day the UK GDP and Manufacturing Production are expected to cause an impact on the GBP currency pairs. The data release is scheduled to occur at 08:30 GMT.
At 11:45 GMT all attention will be given to the ECB. At that time the ECB Main Refinancing Rate and Monetary Policy Statement will be published.
Although, note that these European Central Bank announcements do not create the moves on the EUR pairs. They are caused by the ECB Press Conference, during which the President of the ECB reveals new information by answering questions. The press conference starts at 12:30 GMT.
Meanwhile, exactly at 12:30 GMT USD pairs will be impacted by the publication of the US Consumer Price Index data. This can cause a move of up to 20 pips on USD pairs.
Wednesday will end with an above all fundamental event. The Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee will publish their Meeting Minutes.
In the publication the Fed will officially announced their future plans for US monetary policy.
That will be all on Wednesday. On Thursday, the week's events will end with the US Producers Price Index publication at 12:30 GMT. This event on average causes moves around 10 base points.
All of these events will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics. The covers of these events and the weekly economic calendar review can be watched on the Dukascopy Webinars channel.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
After Monday's surge the EUR/USD fluctuated in the range between 1.1255 and 1.1270.The currency rate was expected to resume its surge, as soon as the hourly simple moving averages reach it from below and strengthen the support of the weekly R1 at 1.1254. In that case the rate would reach for the resistance of a monthly pivot point at 1.1281.
However, the rate could trade sideways until the ECB press conference that is scheduled for Wednesday 12:30 GMT.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart reveals that the rate is surging, as it was expected previously. The surge has started after the rate found support in the 1.1200 level at the start of April
In general, the pair is expected to gradually reach the 55-day simple moving average. The simple moving average on Tuesday was located at the 1.1325 level, where it was strengthened by the weekly R3.
Daily chart
On the Swiss Foreign Exchange the total open position volume is mostly short. Namely, 69% of the volume is short.
It can be explained by traders expecting both a retracement after the recent EUR surge and an ECB announcement, which would signal a decrease of the EUR value. Namely, the continuation of the money creation done by the European Central Bank.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were neutral. Namely, 52% of all orders were set to sell.